While I’ve started my self-imposed temporary media blackout, I had to
make one last post after discussing the election with my parents.
Apparently, someone on the news had said that the Democratic party had
lost touch with the American people. Frankly, that bullshit – the exit
polls tell a very different story.
First off, Bush didn’t win in a landslide – he won the popular vote by
just over 3.5 million votes which translates into a
safe-but-still-narrow 3.1% victory margin. In comparison, Clinton won
the first time with a 5.5% margin and the second time by 8%.
Furthermore, according to the national exit
poll,
Kerry won both the liberal and moderate vote. The election swung to
Bush becuase of the high percentage (34%) of conservative voters. I’d
love to compare those percentages to actual population ideology
distribution, but I have no idea what those actualy distribution numbers
are. Interestingly enough, the 1996 exit
polls
had an almost identical heavily-conservative ideological distribution
and Clinton still won easily.
Kerry lost because he’s had no connection with the conservative voters
of the south and mid-west. He stengthed the democratic lead among
liberals by five points and among moderates by one point over the 2000
exit polls
(mostly due to the Nader non-factor this year) and yet still lost
because Bush improved both the republican lead among conservatives and
the conservative voter turnout by 5 points each.
You can safely say that the Democrats lost touch with conservatives in
America this year, and that it cost them the election. But to say that
Democrats have lost touch with America as a whole is simply not true.
This electorate doesn’t look that much different than the ones that
elected Clinton to two terms.