Is it to early to start making predictions about 2010, 2012 and beyond yet? Probably, but I’ve got a few thoughts anyway.

First, if Obama runs his presidency like he ran his candidacy, he’ll be a great president and will win reelection in a cakewalk. Obviously, there are huge challenges ahead, but I have faith his administration will be able to handle them.

Second, assuming prediction #1 pans out, we’ll see another wide open race in 2016. I’m a big Joe Biden fan, but he’ll be 74 in 2016 – two years older than McCain is now. No way he runs. Hillary Clinton will 69 so I don’t see her running either. Well, maybe they run but I doubt they’d win the nomination. I’m guessing the Democratic nominee in 2016 will be someone who’s not top of mind today – someone who emerges in the next two or four years as “the next Obama”.

Third, we haven’t seen the last of Sarah Palin. I’ve been extremely critical of her, but my libertarian friend recommended I not underestimate her. So I won’t. I think she’ll be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. I know folks are talking about her for 2012, but I think she’d rather take her chances in a wide open race in 2016 than go up against Obama a second time. She’s only 44 now, so she’ll be 52 in 2016 – about perfect for a presidential candidate. Eight years is a long time for her to close the unqualified gap.

In fact, I’d say Ted Stevens apparent reelection is a likely silver lining in otherwise crappy election for the Republicans. Ted Stevens was found guilty on felony corruption charges and faces expulsion from the senate, regardless of his apparent victory yesterday. If he is expelled, there would be a special election to decide his successor. You have to assume Mark Begich, Stevens’ Democratic challenger, would handily win that special election. But what if Palin ran against Begich? She’s taken a hit it her approval ratings since joining the VP ticket, but she’s still very popular in Alaska and probably liked best by Stevens’ supporters. I’m not saying it’s a shoo-in, but I believe she’d have a very good chance to win a special election.

Being a senator for eight years would be long enough to shore up the concerns about her qualifications but short enough not to have much of an attackable voting record. She’d have to win reelection in 2014, but given that Stevens has won seven elections in a row dating back to 1970, I’m guessing getting reelected in 2014 would be no problem.

So my predictions are a fairly easy Obama reelection in 2012, followed by Sen Palin (R) vs. “The Next Obama” (D) in 2016. Midterms in 2010 will probably see Dems give back some of their recent gains, but not enough to lose control of either house of Congress. 2014 is to far out to predict, much less who wins in 2016. But looking at voting trends among minorities, party ID advantages, etc, I like Democrats chances for the foreseeable future.

Finally, I wonder if this is the “end of identity politics” as some have suggested. One election is not a trend, so I tend to think that Obama was immune to such attacks more than those attacks no longer viable. We may need to wait until 2016 to find out. When Palin does run again, will she still be a pitbull with lipstick? I like to think identity politics is toast, but I’m guessing the Republicans will go back to that well a few more times before giving up on it. Democrats, on the other hand, have all the proof they need that they can win against identity politics: President-Elect Obama.

What a difference four years makes. In 2004, I was up until the wee hours because Ohio wasn’t called until the following morning. This year, with Pennsylvania called at 8pm EST and Ohio about 90 minutes later, it was basically over before my kids finished their dinner. We were watching SNL on the DVR from last night when my Dad called to tell us the nets had called it for Obama.

As I write this, Obama has 349 electoral votes – 79 more than he needed to win – with three states still to be called. It looks like Obama will pick up North Carolina (ahead by 12,160 votes with 100% of precincts reporting). Montana looks to be going for McCain (he leads by 7,000 votes with 77% reporting) and Missouri looks like a true tossup, with McCain ahead by a scant 1,740 votes with 99% reporting. Assuming those leads hold up, that would give Obama 364 EVs to McCain’s 174 EVs. Compared to the last two elections, that’s a good solid win on par with Clinton’s win in 1992 (370-168) but nowhere near the ass-kickings by Regan in 1980 (489-49) or 1984 (525-13) or Bush 41 in 1988 (426-111).

(BTW, check out the electoral college map from Carter’s win in 1976. It looks like Bizarro’s electoral map. The south went all blue while California went red? Can you even conceive of that happening today?)

But even though it wasn’t 500 point blowout, consider that Obama flipped all the following red 2004 states to blue in 2008: Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and (probably) North Carolina. My parents are very excited to live in a blue state (VA) now. McCain on the other hand flipped none – goose egg – from blue to red. McCain’s only real hope was Pennsylvania and it wasn’t even close – Obama won PA by 9%.

I did like McCain’s concession speech. Obviously, with the president around 25% approval rating, the incumbent party is at a major disadvantage to start with. But of all the Republican candidates, McCain was the only one I was ever worried about. IMO, any of the other Republican possible nominees would have lost by a much worse margin. McCain was attractive to independents in a way no other Republican candidate this year was.

But in the end, McCain had the probably impossible job of pulling together the 25% of Americans who approve of Bush (politely called “the Republican base”, though I call them “wack-jobs”) with another 25% of Americans who don’t. Kinda like trying to push like charged magnets together, they just wouldn’t stick. To me, it seemed like McCain tacked hard right and prayed the independents would still support him. But as I watched McCain’s concession speech, it made me wonder if McCain could have won by running an honorable campaign, tacking to the center and hoping the conservatives would still support him. Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn’t, but he ended up running as a hate-mongering Rovian erratic demagogue and significantly damaged his personal brand. I can barely reconcile McCain from the stump with McCain from the concession speech. I’m guessing he’ll retire instead of running for reelection in two years.

(I’ve also got thoughts on Palin’s political future, but those will wait for another day.)

As for President-Elect Obama, I’m obviously excited than he won. Patrick made me promise to tell him who won in the morning (it wasn’t official until the west coast results came in after he went to bed). I’m going to show him Obama’s victory speech – it was amazing. I especially liked when he said “And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn – I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.” My libertarian friend who thought it would break for McCain today (way, way wrong dude) immediately went political, pointing out that the Democratic “trifecta” means they can’t shift the blame if things get worse. I’m guessing Obama will have to do quite a bit to earn my friend’s support but I’m hopeful that he can.

In other races I’m following, looks like Gov. Christine Gregoire will win reelection and Darcy Burner is leading in her race to unseat Rep. Reichert (though with only 21% reporting so it’s far from sure thing). In California, Prop 8 to ban gay marriage is currently leading but with only 51% reporting so I’m hoping that changes. (Amending the constitution in CA doesn’t require a super-majority? That sucks).

Finally, a quick shout out to my friends from New Zealand that I hung out with after the Opshop concert at the TechEd Attendee party back in September. They confided in me that “everyone in the world” was pulling for an Obama victory. Based on this Global Electoral College from the Economist magazine, “everyone in the world” is pretty close to spot on. Happy that my fellow Americans and I could deliver an Obama victory. Feels good, doesn’t it?