Washington Capitals record in the past four games: 4-0
Washington Capitals record in the past ten games: 4-4-2

That is what in the business of hockey you call “streaky”.

When your recent winning streak includes wins over Dallas (16-8 at the time, 19-9 now) and Eastern conference leading Buffalo (20-3-2 then, 21-4-2 now), you can feel pretty good about yourself. Being only one point out of the playoffs doesn’t hurt either.

On the other hand, the East is a beast this year. Only Florida and Philadelphia are below .500. Everyone else is in the thick of the playoff hunt. Another six game slide would really hurt the Caps’ playoff chances. By comparison in the West, seven of the fifteen teams are below .500 (i.e. everyone not currently in a playoff spot). Dallas, at ten games over .500 is 3rd in the Pacific Division behind Anaheim (+18) and San Jose (+12).

Finally, it’s always nice to be looking down on the Penguins in the standings. But their not far behind. Their 26 points puts them in 13th place in the East, but they’re at .500 (11-11-4) and only five points out of a playoff spot. Next Monday’s game should be a good one. It’s even on national TV in HD!

Last week, I wrote about the college football logjam. While we’ve seen one team fall out of the running, the overall race for the #2 slot has tightened significantly. Last week, Auburn and USC held a small yet significant advantage in the voting over West Virginia, Florida and Michigan. This week, that margin is gone. Auburn’s loss combined with SC’s wholly unimpressive win (spoken as an SC alumni) over the Huskies and Florida’s impressive win over #9 LSU creates essentially a four way tie for second place. Only 100 votes separate #2 from #5 in both the AP and USA Today polls.

There are also a few other undefeated teams in the top 25: #7 Louisville, #19 Missouri, #20 Boise State and #24 Rutgers. Baring significant upheaval in the polls, only Louisville really has a shot to join the group at the top. They play West Virginia in a few weeks, so the winner of that game will likely stay in the hunt for the BCS title game. And Ohio State still plays Michigan at the end of the season, so we’re still looking at a maximum of four unbeaten teams.

As bad as this scenario is, it’s even worse to consider what happens if all these unbeaten teams lose. Currently, Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, California, and Auburn are all essentially out of the hunt. As long as there are at least two unbeaten teams, really none of these teams can legitimately argue that they deserve a shot at the title. But you can bet that ranked one-loss teams will be highly-motivated to beat ranked no-loss teams in order to be able to make a case for inclusion in the title game. USC plays #18 Oregon State, #10 Cal and #9 Notre Dame. Florida plays at Auburn and Georgia. Michigan plays Iowa (not to mention #1 ranked Ohio State).

If I was a betting man, instead of an Trojan fan, I would bet the BCS title game would be between West Virginia and the winner of the Ohio State / Michigan game. Obviously, if SC plays Notre Dame the way they played against Washington, they’ll lose. But SC will be amped to the max for Notre Dame, so I would be more concerned about SC looking past Oregon State or Cal the way they obviously didn’t take Washington seriously. By the same reasoning, I figure Auburn has a better-than-decent chance of beating Florida next week. If SC and Florida lose, that leaves three unbeaten teams, two of which play each other. Hence my prediction.

Of course, I’m not a betting man, so I’m hoping to see the winner of Ohio State and Michigan play USC for the championship. Note I wrote “hoping” which is code for “that’s only going to happen if they play better than they did the past two weeks”.

The 06-07 NHL season finally starts tonight. This offseason feels longer than most, probably because I’ve been more involved with hockey this past offseason. But the opening night rosters are set and the Sabres and Hurricanes face off in just over five hours. Here are a few quick thoughts:

• NHL.com has gotten a make over. I don’t know who their designer is, but somewhat should clue them into “less is more”.
• There’s a new beta service called NHL Connect. Looks like forums and blogs and profiles right on NHL.com. Looks cool, but currently it’s invite only. I would hope it would open up soon. Nice to see Caps fans representing – the Washington Capitals Official Group is tied with the Kings for most number of members (so far).
• Via Off Wing Opinion I found this article by Dave Fay about the NHL’s point system. His recommendation: “winning a game in regulation should be worth three points, winning in overtime should be worth two, winning in a shootout should be worth one. Losing at any time should be what the reward has always been for losing — zero.” I could live with that. I’m also cool with two points for a win and none for a loss, regardless if it goes to overtime or shootout. I’d even be OK (but not elated) with three for a win in regulation, two for a win in overtime or shootout and one for a loss in overtime or shootout. But the idea that you had out more total points for an overtime game than a non overtime game is just stupid.

Two years ago, Auburn was on the outside looking in on the BCS title game. If things continue as they are, we’re looking at a logjam at the top worse than 2004 or 2003.

At this point, nearly half way though the season, Ohio State has the #1 slot sewn up, assuming they win all their games. Their only remaining game against a ranked opponent is Michigan. Michigan already beat then #2 ranked Notre Dame, so this will be no cake walk for Ohio State. But, let’s assume they win since they fall out of the national title hunt if they lose.

After that comes the logjam. This week’s coaches’ poll has the remaining unbeaten teams ranked as such: #2 USC, #3 Auburn, #4 West Virginia, #5 Florida and #6 Michigan. This week’s AP poll has Auburn #2 and USC #3, and the rest of the unbeatens the same. These polls are VERY close. In the AP poll, Auburn and USC are separated by only 28 votes. West Virginia, Florida and Michigan are only 53 votes apart, with West VA and Florida only 2 votes apart!

Of the six unbeaten teams, only four will survive to the end of the season. As I said above, Michigan plays Ohio State at the end of the season plus Auburn plays Florida in two weeks. Of the six teams, Florida has the hardest schedule. They play four currently ranked teams, two on the road (LSU, @Auburn, Georgia, @Florida State). USC has three games against ranked teams, but none are in the top ten and their all at home (Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame). Ohio State has probably the easiest schedule, with only one game against ranked opponent – i.e. Michigan – and they get them at home.

So assuming Ohio State, Auburn, USC and West Virginia all run the table, it’s a toss up who will be ranked #2 and play Ohio State in the BCS title game. Both USC and Auburn are #2 in one of the two major polls. Auburn has three games against ranked opponents (two remaining + their 7-3 victory over then-#6-ranked LSU). USC has four games against ranked opponents (three remaining + their 28-10 victory over then-#19-ranked Nebraska). But none of USC’s ranked opponents are in the top ten and all of Auburn’s are (at least currently). So who has the edge? Who knows? I do know that in this situation, either Auburn or USC will be left out in the cold. Not to mention West Virginia who has basically no chance to crack the top two unless someone stumbles.

I’m predicting lots of complaining at the end of the season. Like every season where there’s more than one unbeaten team. I’m begriming to believe that’s why the BCS was created, so that fans can focus their hostility on computers rather than the polls.

Update: I forgot to mention the ultra nightmare BCS scenario. If USC, Auburn and Michigan run the table, you’ll likely have a USC vs. Auburn title game with Michigan ranked #3. That means Michigan would have beaten both then-ranked #1 and #2 during the season, but wouldn’t get a shot at the title.

This just came across my news reader:

Washington Capitals will face the Philadelphia Flyers in preseason exhibition tonight. Bummed that the game is not being televised? Never fear, WashingtonCaps.com is broadcasting the game via broadband off their website. However it is restricted to the Washington area only.
[Caps Live Via Web – Puckhead’s Thoughts]

Wow! I mean, I still can’t watch the game <grumble grumble> and it is still pre-season, but this is pretty significant. More details in the press release:

The Washington Capitals exhibition game against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, Sept. 26 at 7 p.m. will be broadcast live on WashingtonCaps.com through the use of B2 Networks. This will mark the first time in NHL history that a game can be viewed exclusively via broadband.

The game can be seen free of charge on the Capitals’ website, WashingtonCaps.com. Fans will need a high-speed internet connection and Windows Media Player 9 or higher. Capitals’ radio network play-by-play announcer Steve Kolbe will call the game with Mike Vogel, senior writer from WashingtonCaps.com, providing analysis. Due to NHL broadcast restrictions, the game can only be viewed by fans living within the Capitals broadcast area.

B2 Networks is a provider of secure international television and video broadcasting systems, pay-per-view and billing systems. During the past 12 months, B2 has broadcast more than 3,000 hockey games from all levels including the championships from four leagues. B2 is the digital distribution rightsholder for the United Hockey League, American Hockey League, ECHL and USHL, along with baseball’s Northern League. B2 recently broadcast the National Lacrosse League championship to fans on four continents.
[Capitals Preseason Game to be Broadcast on WashingtonCaps.com via B2Networks]

The Caps and their owner are aggressively pursing avenues outside of the main stream media (which for the most part ignores hockey). First, they come up with Guidelines For Issuing Press Credentials To Bloggers and now this.

Of all the major sports, hockey seems to have the most to gain from both the HD revolution and media decentralization. Hockey is so fast and the puck is so small, you spend most of your time tracking the puck when watching in standard definition. In HD, you don’t have to watch the puck, you can watch the play. This isn’t to say that other sports aren’t gorgeous in HD, but the difference in the experience between SD and HD just isn’t as significant for other sports. As for media decentralization, the reason hockey has the most to gain is because it has the least coverage in the mainstream media today. So there’s no where to go but up.

However, the NHL broadcast restrictions stuff has got to go. Come on Ted, you’re a “pioneer of the Internet and new media”. Get those guys at the NHL to wake up and embrace the new media! How come EVERY game isn’t available this way?