(Harry is on a secret mission in uncharted space this week, so instead
of the daily Morning Coffee post, you get a series of autoposted essays.
As this post is about Web 2.0, it’s obviously from fairly old from his
previous role @ Microsoft.)
In my previous
post,
I wrote that I thought of Web 2.0 as the latest evolution of our
post-industrial society. This latest evolutionary step was enabled by
ubiquitous access to the Internet. We’ve come a long way on that front
in just the past five years. Take for example, home networking. In 2000,
less than 10% of active Internet users in the US had a broadband
connection. Today, that number is just under
70%. At the same time, the
consumer wireless router market has exploded. In 2000, there was no such
thing as a wireless router for the consumer market. Today, you can buy a
wireless router for under $100. In just under five years, consumer
Internet access has evolved from being slow, intermittent and isolated
to being fast, persistent and available anywhere in the home.
In addition to home networking, we’ve seen dramatic rise in mobile
computer usage. Today, laptops are ahead
desktops
in terms of dollar sales and are expected to move ahead of desktops in
terms of unit sales by 2008. Wireless access isn’t available just in the
home, but in offices and at tens of thousands of wireless hotspots
worldwide. Beyond WiFi and laptops, there is the availability of third
generation wireless phone networks and smart phones with built in
Internet and media functionality.
These technologies combine to provide a mobile and always-on connection
to the rest of the world via the Internet that society is just beginning
to leverage.
One of the earliest examples of the effect that the always-on Internet
can have society was the original
Napster. While Napster’s history
and impact on the music industry is well documented, their peer-to-peer
approach was only possible because of the availability of fast and
persistent Internet access. Music files are fairly large, so Napster ran
better with a fast connection. Furthermore, the availability of an
always-on Internet connection enabled Napster’s peer-to-peer connections
to be available even when the user was away from their computer or using
it for other things. This allowed individuals to contribute to the
overall Napster experience, even when they weren’t using their machine.
The dubious legality of Napster’s business eventually led to its
shutdown. But the idea of connecting users directly to other users is
alive in well in legal online services such as
Skype and
FolderShare.
This persistent connection was the final puzzle piece that has caused a
fundamental shift in computing. There’s been more processing power and
storage on the edge of the network for quite a while, but it was
inaccessible. We needed fast, persistent and ubiquitous network
connections to make that power available. As that network bandwidth has
become available, the balance of computing power has shifted from the
center to the edge. Today,
And in the Information Age, where the computing power goes, society will
follow.