“The paper sure loves to talk about
Selling out
Some of us never get the chance”
Stick Around by Mr. Jones and the Previous

• Didn’t see that coming. I guess the Buckeyes didn’t either. Congrats to the Gators. That makes at least three championships in a row won by the underdog. For all the complaining about the BCS, it’s hard to argue they got the champion wrong this year. However, with the exception of the Fiesta Bowl, the BCS games weren’t very good this year.
• There’s a video of the new Xbox 360 IPTV service up on 10. I realize it’s a demo and we’re nearly a year away from release, but I’m not impressed. Xbox 360 Fanboy pointed to a blogger who got a deeper look at the service at Microsoft’s CE booth. Frankly, it doesn’t look or sound like it’s much different than standard cable service (though I like the sound of 35Mbps bandwidth at my house). I realize familiarity is good, but do we really have to lock ourselves into the existing TV paradigm?
• I got roped into a webcast today on Optimizing Application Platform Infrastructure. It’s at 11am Pacific time. Stop by and say hi.
• My colleague Dale has a rant about Service Oriented Assholes. His definition: “Any person or team that pontificates on Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) without considering the realities of implementing SOA in a real business environment with real suppliers, customers, and products. These people are great at designing something on a white board or on paper, but couldn’t produce a real workable production ready system if their life depended on it.” Sort of a more specific (and vulgar) version of Joel’s “Architecture Astronauts“. How many SOA-holes do you know?

I’m living in a tinder box, hosing down the roof
It’s raging all around me, and I still refuse to move
There’s a lesson I’m desperate to learn
And I’m willing to burn
“Willing To Burn” by Maia Sharp

• A warm welcome goes out to the 110th congress. Between the Democratic majority in both houses and Republicans looking to distance themselves from President Decider and his abysmal approval ratings, maybe we’ll actually get something accomplished in the next two years.
• Not as nice as USC trouncing Michigan, but I like seeing Notre Dame on the receiving end of a 41-14 beatdown from LSU in the Sugar Bowl. That’s the 9th consecutive bowl loss for the Irish.
• Actually started getting some work done yesterday. Today I’m doing some WCF STS work, but yesterday I focused on SSB and WF.
• I need to better understand WF’s faulting and compensation model. I got sidetracked yesterday when I realized that when a WF instance faults, the built-in SQL persistence service deletes the persisted instance from the database. That doesn’t seem right to me, but I was wrong last time I called out the WF SQL persistence service so I want to do more digging before I open my trap.
• I dig WF persistence. I wrote a few weeks ago about shipping a WF instance to a developer for debugging. Yesterday, I thought about having a persistence service that kept a history of the WF instance rather than overwriting it. I wonder if that would help with production debugging?
• Great quote yesterday by my boss, speaking ill of a project that will remain nameless:
  “Basically, they’ve spent the last month building an executive presentation to say we’re screwed”

I gave up drinkin’, I gave up smokin’
I gave up thinkin’ all the time, stone cold revoken
No reason to my rhyme, I wasn’t jokin’
If there’s a phony bone in me, I want it broken
“Rub It In” by All Day Sucker

I’m trying to write more in 2007. Here’s a roundup of stuff rattling around my brain:

• Fight On! So much for Michigan and their bleating about being left out of the championship game. Also, massive congrats to Boise State.
• Santa did bring me free time this holiday, but I spent it playing games rather than writing them. I’m digging Gears (big surprise) and Dead Rising, and I’ve starting playing Viva Pinata with Patrick. Plus, I finished GRAW which I had on loan from a friend just in time to start playing Vegas. Note I said “free time” which is to say time when I wasn’t hanging out with my family. Typically during naps or after everyone was in bed, though I did skip at least one birthday party to play instead.
• We had a “surprise” snow storm two days after Christmas. Not enough to be dangerous driving, but enough to make a snowman with my kids. It’s still there, though now that it’s 55 degrees, I’m guessing it will be totally melted by the time I get home from work. It’s been melting a little bit each day, so it’s been like watching the climax of Raiders of the Lost Ark in slow motion.
• My wife and I finished watching season 5 of Alias last night. Fun, though it had really jumped the shark by Season 5. We watched the entire series on DVD, which really makes me wonder about the future of broadcast TV. We watched season 1 of Lost on DVD but we’ve been watching on TV ever since. I’m hooked on Lost, so there’s no way I could go back to DVDs at this point, but I’m thinking that DVD is a better way to go for most TV. I wonder how this will change TV storytelling.
• I wish I could see how a show like Lost or Alias evolves over time. How much of the Rimbaldi story arc was mapped out before the show started? How did the production team deal with forced changes like Jennifer Garner’s pregnancy or the apparently surprise series cancellation?
• I had 12 days off for the holidays, so it’s very tough to be back at work. As I suggested above, I did very little coding while I was off, so getting back in the saddle won’t be easy. It’s especially hard on my little boy that I’m back to work. He was acting up yesterday which is fairly unusual. I finally asked him if he was sad about me going back to work and he broke down crying. I’m very lucky to be a part of such a tight knit family.
• I’ve been in my “new” job for six months, but it seems like longer. I mean that in a good way. It feels like I fit better in this job, on a much smaller team, actually building stuff instead of just “evangelizing” it. Nothing against evangelism, I just think I burned out on that job.

So starts a new feature on DevHawk. As you might guess from the “1″ in the title, I’m hoping to make this a regular feature. As I ease back into work, expect more tech related nuggets along with the more random stuff. I should admit, however, that I actually don’t drink coffee. 😄

Last week, I wrote about the college football logjam. While we’ve seen one team fall out of the running, the overall race for the #2 slot has tightened significantly. Last week, Auburn and USC held a small yet significant advantage in the voting over West Virginia, Florida and Michigan. This week, that margin is gone. Auburn’s loss combined with SC’s wholly unimpressive win (spoken as an SC alumni) over the Huskies and Florida’s impressive win over #9 LSU creates essentially a four way tie for second place. Only 100 votes separate #2 from #5 in both the AP and USA Today polls.

There are also a few other undefeated teams in the top 25: #7 Louisville, #19 Missouri, #20 Boise State and #24 Rutgers. Baring significant upheaval in the polls, only Louisville really has a shot to join the group at the top. They play West Virginia in a few weeks, so the winner of that game will likely stay in the hunt for the BCS title game. And Ohio State still plays Michigan at the end of the season, so we’re still looking at a maximum of four unbeaten teams.

As bad as this scenario is, it’s even worse to consider what happens if all these unbeaten teams lose. Currently, Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, California, and Auburn are all essentially out of the hunt. As long as there are at least two unbeaten teams, really none of these teams can legitimately argue that they deserve a shot at the title. But you can bet that ranked one-loss teams will be highly-motivated to beat ranked no-loss teams in order to be able to make a case for inclusion in the title game. USC plays #18 Oregon State, #10 Cal and #9 Notre Dame. Florida plays at Auburn and Georgia. Michigan plays Iowa (not to mention #1 ranked Ohio State).

If I was a betting man, instead of an Trojan fan, I would bet the BCS title game would be between West Virginia and the winner of the Ohio State / Michigan game. Obviously, if SC plays Notre Dame the way they played against Washington, they’ll lose. But SC will be amped to the max for Notre Dame, so I would be more concerned about SC looking past Oregon State or Cal the way they obviously didn’t take Washington seriously. By the same reasoning, I figure Auburn has a better-than-decent chance of beating Florida next week. If SC and Florida lose, that leaves three unbeaten teams, two of which play each other. Hence my prediction.

Of course, I’m not a betting man, so I’m hoping to see the winner of Ohio State and Michigan play USC for the championship. Note I wrote “hoping” which is code for “that’s only going to happen if they play better than they did the past two weeks”.

Two years ago, Auburn was on the outside looking in on the BCS title game. If things continue as they are, we’re looking at a logjam at the top worse than 2004 or 2003.

At this point, nearly half way though the season, Ohio State has the #1 slot sewn up, assuming they win all their games. Their only remaining game against a ranked opponent is Michigan. Michigan already beat then #2 ranked Notre Dame, so this will be no cake walk for Ohio State. But, let’s assume they win since they fall out of the national title hunt if they lose.

After that comes the logjam. This week’s coaches’ poll has the remaining unbeaten teams ranked as such: #2 USC, #3 Auburn, #4 West Virginia, #5 Florida and #6 Michigan. This week’s AP poll has Auburn #2 and USC #3, and the rest of the unbeatens the same. These polls are VERY close. In the AP poll, Auburn and USC are separated by only 28 votes. West Virginia, Florida and Michigan are only 53 votes apart, with West VA and Florida only 2 votes apart!

Of the six unbeaten teams, only four will survive to the end of the season. As I said above, Michigan plays Ohio State at the end of the season plus Auburn plays Florida in two weeks. Of the six teams, Florida has the hardest schedule. They play four currently ranked teams, two on the road (LSU, @Auburn, Georgia, @Florida State). USC has three games against ranked teams, but none are in the top ten and their all at home (Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame). Ohio State has probably the easiest schedule, with only one game against ranked opponent – i.e. Michigan – and they get them at home.

So assuming Ohio State, Auburn, USC and West Virginia all run the table, it’s a toss up who will be ranked #2 and play Ohio State in the BCS title game. Both USC and Auburn are #2 in one of the two major polls. Auburn has three games against ranked opponents (two remaining + their 7-3 victory over then-#6-ranked LSU). USC has four games against ranked opponents (three remaining + their 28-10 victory over then-#19-ranked Nebraska). But none of USC’s ranked opponents are in the top ten and all of Auburn’s are (at least currently). So who has the edge? Who knows? I do know that in this situation, either Auburn or USC will be left out in the cold. Not to mention West Virginia who has basically no chance to crack the top two unless someone stumbles.

I’m predicting lots of complaining at the end of the season. Like every season where there’s more than one unbeaten team. I’m begriming to believe that’s why the BCS was created, so that fans can focus their hostility on computers rather than the polls.

Update: I forgot to mention the ultra nightmare BCS scenario. If USC, Auburn and Michigan run the table, you’ll likely have a USC vs. Auburn title game with Michigan ranked #3. That means Michigan would have beaten both then-ranked #1 and #2 during the season, but wouldn’t get a shot at the title.