In his now-famous talk, Dick
Hardt describes Identity
2.0 as inevitable. As in “coming for sure,
but not here yet”. I wonder how much of Web 2.0 is here now, and how
much is inevitable? And furthermore, how much can we generalize about
the future of Web 2.0 from what is happening now? As in many things, I
think the answer isn’t black and white.
For example, I think we can generalize about the bright future of
peer-to-peer based technologies from looking at systems like
Skype and
FolderShare. Naturally, with the power
shifting to the edge, I believe it’s inevitable for more edge machines
to communicate directly with each other rather than being mediated by a
service in the center. In fact, in many cases I believe were going to
want to shift a significant percentage of social computing to the
peer-to-peer model. It scales better and doesn’t have centralized
privacy concerns. Furthermore, I think there may be be specific
peer-to-peer capabilities that are difficult or impossible to replicate
with a centralized model, though so far, I haven’t them yet.
However, I’m not sure we can generalize about the future of mashups the
same way. This isn’t to say I think mashups are going away – far from
it. I just think that mashups a year from now will look very different
than they do today.
First off, I don’t think we can generalize the success of Google Maps.
In the Programmable Web how to
guide, they mention that
“Plotting markers on maps is probably the easiest place to start”.
Apparently, many people are taking that advice because 297 of the 411
mashups listed use one of the
three major (i.e. GYM) mapping services. However, maps are unique
because of the massive amount of data, the extremely simple API and the
ubiquity of location information. They are also one of the few mashup
API’s that runs in the browser – the vast majority of mashup API’s are
back end data type services like Amazon’s E-Commerce
Service.
How many more in-browser mashup
API’s are out there waiting to be
built? I’m not sure, but as I wrote in Browser as
VM, the
problem with these in-browser mashup API’s is that you can’t protect
your IP.
As for back-end service mashup APIs, there needs to be a way for these
service providers to make money. Even if the software they use to build
the service is free, things like hardware and bandwidth are not. For an
Amazon or Ebay, making money on thier services is relatively easy since
they are facilitating sales transactions. In the end, they probably
won’t care much if a sales transaction originated on their site or on a
site leveraging their APIs. However, if the service provider is
ad-funded, the service API effectively routes around the site’s revenue
mechanism. Take, for example, a site for tracking events like
Zvents, Eventful or
Upcoming. They need to drive users to the actual
site in order to drive revenue. So it remains to be seen exactly how the
API based access is going to work out. Today, these API’s are
specifically provided for “non-commercial use only” so one way would be
to charge for access via the API (either flat-rate subscription, a
per-use charge or a combination of the two). Alternatively, they could
be bought up by a larger company who could then afford to run the
business at a loss. Yahoo already bought Upcoming and Google Base
already has an event item type, but the other big companies in this
space (I’d guess Microsoft, Amazon, Ebay and maybe Apple) might be
interested. Again, I’m not sure how this evolves either, but it’s got to
evolve beyond “non-commercial access”.